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Tuesday, October 9th, 2007

There are still 10 area teams in contention for playoffs

By Bruce Monnin
There are 100 games throughout the season that can affect a team's computer points. The 10 games the team plays, and the nine other games each of their opponents play the rest of the season.
After the seventh week of the season, 49 out of these 100 games have been factored into the computer points, or about half the games which will affect a team's computer points have occurred. So it is fitting that we still have half of the Western Buckeye League teams and half of the Midwest Athletic Conference teams still in realistic playoff contention.
The WBL teams still serious about a playoff berth include St. Marys, Kenton, Defiance and Lima Shawnee in region 10 and Ottawa-Glandorf in region 14. In the MAC, the contenders have been narrowed to Coldwater in region 16, Marion Local, Anna and Parkway in region 20 and Fort Recovery in region 24.
Of these 10 teams, expect somewhere between four and eight of them to make the playoffs (more likely between five and seven).
Marion Local is the only local team to appear to be a lock, though, Anna is not far behind. Everyone else still has a lot of hard work to do.
Here's a listing of how all the MAC and WBL teams stand in the computer rankings after the seventh week, as well as a few other teams they are competing against for one of the highly sought after playoff berths. The computer points for the five regions involving Mercer, Auglaize and Shelby county teams can be found at http://www.bright.net/~monninb/football.htm

Team - Ranking (Computer Points)
Region 6:
Grafton Midview - 8th (9.76)
Wapakoneta - 24th (3.50)
Celina - 28th (0.71)
Celina gets on the board but it is too late for worrying about a playoff spot.

Region 10:
Kenton Ridge - 8th (10.36)
St. Marys - 9th (9.62)
Kenton - 14th (8.67)
Defiance - 15th (7.26)
Lima Shawnee - 16th (7.24)
Van Wert - 24th (3.14)
Elida - 30th (0.00)
St. Marys marches closer to a playoff spot, with two 5-2 teams coming up in the next two weeks which could provide a lot of computer points should the Roughriders win. Note that even though Kenton is five places behind St. Marys in the standings, the Wildcats are very close in the actually number of computer points. Defiance and Lima Shawnee lurk just a bit farther behind, but still very close.

Region 14:
Bucyrus - 8th (10.25)
Ottawa-Glandorf - 12th (9.17)
Lima Bath - 27th (0.71)
Ottawa-Glandorf defeated 1-6 Lima Bath and fell four spots in the rankings as its reward. The next two weeks do not look any better for the Titans' hopes in the computer points, so a win in week 10 against Lima Shawnee is looking necessary for a chance at the playoffs.

Region 16:
Clinton-Massie - 4th (13.17)
Coldwater - 8th (11.43)
North College Hill - 9th (9.54)
Coldwater also wins and drops in the rankings, going down two places after defeating 0-7 Minster. The Cavaliers' cushion over the ninth-place team has lessened, but is still there. The Cavaliers still figure to need to win their last three to earn a playoff berth, and a spot in the top four to earn a home game seems unlikely.

Region 20:
Marion Local - 1st (11.57)
Anna - 4th (9.44)
Waynesville - 5th (8.92)
Miami East - 8th (8.06)
Parkway - 9th (7.72)
St. Henry - 14th (5.34)
Versailles - 26th (1.35)
Marion Local regains the top spot and in reality is now competing for a high seed as a playoff spot is almost assured. A win over Parkway this week would put Anna in a similar position, with the week-nine game between Marion and Anna possibly being a fight for home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Parkway edged closer to a playoff spot by defeating St. Henry, but will probably need a win over Anna this week for a realistic shot at the playoffs. The Redskins are most likely out of playoff race.

Region 22:
Hardin Northern - 8th (7.00)
Delphos St. Johns - 23rd (1.77)
Even with games remaining against Marion Local and Coldwater, which are each worth huge computer points, the Blue Jays are realistically out of contention.

Region 24:
Columbus Harvest Prep - 8th (6.57)
Fort Recovery - 12th (5.02)
New Bremen - 27th (0.50)
Minster - 29th (0.00)
Fort Recovery fell backward four spots in the standings after losing to Marion Local. The Indians probably need to win the last three games to keep alive their playoff hopes. New Bremen and Minster may not be mathematically out of contention, but will be by next week whether they win or lose.
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