Tuesday, October 16th, 2018
Computer Points In Review
A lot up for grabs in final 2 weeks of football season
By Bruce Monnin
It is one week closer to the end of the high school football regular season and one more ticket to the postseason has been punched. Wapakoneta joined St. Marys as the second WBL team to secure a playoff spot thanks to its win over Defiance last week. Also, St. Marys became the first area team to be guaranteed to host a first-round playoff game.
In the MAC, Marion Local, Coldwater and Minster will all be playing in Week 11, but none have quite secured that home playoff game yet. However, if I were a betting man, I would wager all three will be hosting their opening playoff matchup.
The WBL only has four teams (Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Van Wert and Kenton) still in the top eight of their regions, as Defiance dropped to 10th in Region 10 with its loss to Wapakoneta. Celina is still a long shot to make the playoffs in Region 12, while Ottawa-Glandorf has slightly higher hopes in Region 18.
The MAC still has six teams (Anna, Marion Local, Coldwater, St. Henry, Minster and New Bremen) ranked in the top eight of their regions, and all are favored to reach postseason play. Fort Recovery is a deep long shot to become the MAC's seventh playoff team.
The big game this week is Coldwater visiting St. Henry. Coldwater is already in the playoffs. The Cavaliers will probably host their first-round game even if they lose their final two games to St. Henry and Marion Local. St. Henry is probably in the playoffs as long as the Redskins defeat Parkway in their final game. However, both teams would like a win to take the "probably" out of these scenarios.
The article later this week will highlight the most important games to watch for area teams with playoff aspirations.
The complete computer points for the five regions involving most area teams can be found throughout the season at: http://user.nktelco.net/bdmonnin/football.htm
Division III Region 12:
Team - Ranking (Computer Points)
Kettering Alter - 1st (18.45)
Chaminade-Julienne - 2nd (17.43)
Wapakoneta - 3rd (17.34)
Bishop Fenwick - 4th (16.74)
Vandalia Butler - 5th (15.01)
Trotwood-Madison - 6th (14.83)
Hamilton Badin - 7th (12.31)
Mount Healthy - 8th (12.10)
Piqua - 9th (8.82)
Celina - 14th (6.24)
Wapakoneta clinched its playoff spot by defeating Defiance. One more win should get the Redskins a home playoff game, and that may be easier to accomplish against Ottawa-Glandorf this week than against St. Marys in Week 10.
Celina has suffered three losses in a row, and probably needed to find a way to win one of those to reach the postseason. The Bulldogs do not have a very good chance at the playoffs even if they defeat Van Wert and then Shawnee. But they have no chance if they lose either game.
Division IV Region 14:
St. Marys - 1st (19.20)
Clear Fork - 2nd (18.89)
Huron - 3rd (14.08)
Van Wert - 4th (13.21)
Napoleon - 5th (12.96)
Bryan - 6th (12.07)
Kenton - 7th (11.95)
Pepper Pike Orange - 8th (11.94)
Lorain Clearview - 9th (11.28)
Marengo Highland - 10th (10.14)
St. Marys charges back into the top spot in this region after defeating Celina, with the side benefit that the Roughriders will definitely open their playoff run at Skip Baughman Stadium. A win over Defiance this week means St. Marys will occupy one of the top two spots in the final standings of this region.
Van Wert held steady with a victory over winless Bath, which tells you the competition in this region is not exactly lighting the world on fire. A win by the Cougars over either Celina or Defiance is still necessary to lock down their playoff invitation.
Kenton drops one place after its loss to Ottawa-Glandorf. I cannot remember a team ever falling in the standings four weeks in a year and yet remaining in the top eight, but the Wildcats have earned that dubious distinction. Kenton will be heavily favored to defeat both Elida and Bath, but with so few points coming in, Kenton will need a couple of teams on the list above to suffer an unexpected loss.
Division V Region 18:
Liberty Center - 1st (16.99)
Genoa - 2nd (15.81)
Anna - 3rd (15.21)
Marion Pleasant - 4th (14.79)
Oak Harbor - 5th (13.19)
Elyria Catholic - 6th (12.95)
North Union - 7th (11.72)
Miami East - 8th (10.29)
Archbold - 9th (10.24)
Millbury Lake - 10th (10.03)
Ottawa-Glandorf - 11th (9.65)
Anna earned huge points by defeating Coldwater last week - enough to practically guarantee the Rockets a playoff spot. That is a very good thing because much fewer points will come in the next two weeks if Anna beats Parkway and Delphos St. John's.
Ottawa-Glandorf needed to beat Kenton to stay in the playoff hunt, and it did so with a 31-0 win. An even greater challenge awaits this week as the Titans will need to go on the road and defeat Wapakoneta.
Division VI Region 24:
Marion Local - 1st (17.11)
Mechanicsburg - 2nd (16.86)
Coldwater - 3rd (16.53)
Lima Central Catholic - 4th (15.82)
St. Henry - 5th (11.14)
Spencerville - 6th (10.93)
Troy Christian - 7th (10.21)
Tri-County North - 8th (10.18)
Deer Park - 9th (9.45)
West Liberty-Salem - 10th (9.26)
Covington - 11th (9.15)
Perry - 13th (8.35)
Fort Recovery - 16th (6.01)
Marion Local may have won by only one point over Minster, but it earned enough computer points to pass Coldwater and hold off Mechanicsburg for the top spot in the standings. The Flyers can finish no worse than fifth in this region, and can earn a home playoff game with a win at home against Fort Recovery.
Coldwater lost a chance to gain a boatload of computer points when it lost to Anna, but the Cavaliers can also finish no worse than fifth place. Coldwater can ensure a top-four spot with a win, but has to travel to 6-2 St. Henry this week before hosting undefeated Marion Local to end the season.
St. Henry jumped three positions in the standings after exacting a little revenge on Fort Recovery. A win over Coldwater this week will probably earn the Redskins that fifth spot in the final standings. A loss means they have to beat Parkway next week and hope no upset knocks them out of their probable eighth seed.
Fort Recovery is mathematically still alive, but it would take wins over Marion Local and Versailles, then a lot of help, to keep the Indians' hope alive.
Division VII Region 28:
Fort Loramie - 1st (16.09)
Crestview - 2nd (13.35)
Ansonia - 3rd (10.88)
Minster - 4th (9.78)
Riverside - 5th (9.69)
Miami Valley Christian - 6th (8.94)
New Bremen - 7th (6.88)
Lehman - 8th (6.34)
Waynesfield-Goshen - 9th (5.88)
Riverdale - 10th (4.20)
Minster travels to face Versailles, and a win means the Wildcats will likely finish fourth or fifth (and play Riverside in their opening playoff game) even if they lose to New Bremen the following week. A win over the Cardinals in Week 10 will give the Wildcats a home playoff game, probably with the third seed, in Week 11.
The top six teams have all claimed playoffs spots, so New Bremen's margin of error is shrinking. A win over Delphos St. John's should give the Cardinals the eighth and final playoff spot (and a game against Fort Loramie). It would also be helpful to New Bremen's cause if Waynesfield-Goshen is upset by Hardin Northern this week. Of course, a win in Week 10 against Minster should move New Bremen up to a sixth or seventh seed.