Tuesday, October 27th, 2009
Several local teams still fighting to reach postseason
By Bruce Monnin
Just one week remains in the high school football regular season, and several teams either earned or lost their chance at a playoff berth last weekend.
Ottawa-Glandorf clinched a spot in the postseason with its win over Van Wert, as did Kenton when it defeated Wapakoneta. Losses by St. Marys, Defiance and Van Wert effectively ended their playoff hopes. Lima Shawnee is the only other WBL with realistic playoff hopes, but the Indians will have to defeat Van Wert and receive some help.
In the Midwest Athletic Conference, Delphos St. John's clinched the top seed in its region by defeating St. Henry and Coldwater also earned a spot in the postseason with its win over Minster. The winner of the Anna-Marion Local game is guaranteed a spot in the playoffs, with Anna still having a very good chance even if it loses. Marion Local could also still qualify with a loss, though the Flyers' odds are somewhat slimmer.
St. Henry drops to sixth in its region with the loss. Unfortunately for the Redskins, a win over Minster next week will not generate many computer points, and the Redskins will likely drop a little in the standings. Whether St. Henry ends up in or out of the playoffs will depend on games it cannot control. New Bremen also still has slim playoff hopes.
Later this week we will again have projections completed for every game involving teams in playoff contention in regions 10, 20 and 24. From that, we will be able to make a prediction regarding the final standings in the computer points for area playoff hopefuls along with matchups.
Here is a listing of how all the MAC and Western Buckeye League teams stand in the computer rankings after the ninth week. The computer points for the three regions involving most area teams can be found at www.nktelco.net/bdmonnin/football.htm
Team - Ranking (Computer Points)
Wapakoneta - 27th (1.01)
Bryan - 8th (14.28)
Lima Shawnee - 10th (11.53)
St. Marys - 15th (9.87)
Defiance - 16th (8.12)
Elida - 17th (7.56)
Celina - 28th (1.45)
Defiance was eliminated from the playoffs with its loss last week. St. Marys is still mathematically alive, but the Roughriders' realistic hopes were squashed by Lima Shawnee last week.
Lima Shawnee still has a chance, but it needs to win this week against 5-4 Van Wert and have four or five other teams in contention lose. Needless to say, the odds are against them.
Orrville - 4th (16.35)
Ottawa-Glandorf - 5th (16.18)
Pemberville Eastwood - 8th (12.25)
Van Wert - 14th (8.98)
Ottawa-Glandorf has clinched a playoff spot and may be able to secure a home game if it defeats 1-8 Celina and Orrville loses to 5-4 Wooster next week. Van Wert is still mathematically alive, but needs to defeat 6-3 Lima Shawnee and have five teams currently above them in the standings to lose.
Kenton - 4th (18.98)
Valley View - 5th (17.22)
Lima Bath - 22nd (2.81)
Kenton is already guaranteed a spot in the playoffs. If the Wildcats defeat St. Marys, then Kenton will likely get to play at home for its first postseason game. There is also a good chance that Kenton's opponent would be Valley View, a matchup fans would have loved to have seen back in the Ben Mauk days. With a new Mauk at the helm for Kenton, it could be a game worth seeing again.
Coldwater - 1st (17.96)
West Liberty-Salem - 2nd (17.74)
Richwood North Union - 3rd (17.67)
Anna - 4th (16.53)
Columbus Bishop Ready - 5th (15.54)
St. Henry - 6th (14.92)
West Jefferson - 7th (14.88)
Gahanna Columbus Academy - 8th (14.45)
Miami East - 9th (13.23)
Hamilton Badin - 10th (13.08)
Cincinnati Hills Christian Academy - 11th (11.02)
Versailles - 14th (9.53)
Parkway - 29th (0.74)
This region is a bit complicated. Coldwater is in the playoffs thanks to its win over Minster. A win over New Bremen should give the Cavaliers a #3 seed at worst, as they may be passed by Richwood North Union if they beat 7-2 Delaware Buckeye Valley or by Columbus Bishop Ready if they defeat 7-2 Columbus Bishop Hartley.
Anna's win over Versailles mostly likely secured the Rockets a playoff invitation and a win over 4-5 Marion Local guarantees one. The Rockets could realistically hope to finish as high as third in this region with a win Friday, but like Coldwater, Anna could be passed by both North Union and Bishop Ready and then drop to fifth, forcing a road game for week 11.
St. Henry is currently in sixth place and a win over 1-8 Minster will not help its computer points much. West Jefferson (vs. 8-1 Baltimore Liberty Union), Gahanna Columbus Academy (at 2-7 Whitehall-Yearling), Miami East (vs 9-0 Ansonia) and Hamilton Badin (at 5-4 Archbishop McNicholas) may all pass the Redskins with a win. On the good side, the Redskins just might pass Bishop Ready if they lose to Bishop Hartley. Expect a lot of scoreboard watching in St. Henry after the game Friday night.
Versailles was mathematically eliminated from the playoffs with its loss to Anna.
Delphos St. John's - 1st (21.98)
Cory-Rawson - 8th (10.49)
Delphos St. John's has clinched the top seed in the region. There are six teams that are 6-3 fighting for the right to be the Blue Jays' first round playoff victim.
Lockland - 1st (15.81)
Marion Local - 8th (10.27)
Covington - 9th (8.35)
New Bremen - 10th (7.90)
Minster - 18th (2.44)
Fort Recovery - 19th (2.27)
Marion Local (4-5) is eighth and is guaranteed a spot in the playoffs with a win over 8-1 Anna. Should the Flyers lose, they will likely still earn the eighth and final playoff spot if 6-3 Covington loses to 5-4 Mississinawa Valley. This is because the Flyers have gained more computer points from their nonconference victories over Lima Shawnee and Our Lady of Mount Carmel than they would have received by defeating Delphos St. John's and Coldwater.
Although New Bremen has one more win than Marion Local and defeated the Flyers head to head, the 5-4 Cardinals will need to defeat 8-1 Coldwater to make the playoffs. If they lose to Coldwater, the Cardinals will look back on their week-two loss to Fort Loramie as the game which could have earned them a spot in the playoffs.
Fort Recovery and Minster were mathematically eliminated with their losses last week.