Upcoming games key for playoffs

The seventh week of the high school football regular season featured nothing unexpected in the WBL, and thus little to no change in the computer standings for WBL teams. The MAC, however, featured more movement due to a big game and an unexpected upset. We will use this article to show the effects of last weekend's results and then another later in the week to project in greater depth what might be expected to happen by the end of the season.

The three undefeated WBL teams (Wapakoneta, St. Marys and Ottawa-Glandorf) have all but clinched playoff spots. Each has a chance to miss the postseason if they lose their last three, but the odds say they would still limp into the postseason anyway. The rest of the WBL have been eliminated from any realistic chance to play in Week 11.
   The MAC currently has eight teams in the top 10 of their regions. Unfortunately, three of those teams (Anna, Versailles and Delphos St. John's) fell out of the top eight into ninth or 10th place this week. St. Henry's big win over Anna moved the Redskins four spots back into fifth place in Region 24, while Minster's monster upset win over Coldwater vaulted the Wildcats up five places to sixth in Region 28. 

The game of the week in the WBL will be at Harmon Field as Wapakoneta hosts Ottawa-Glandorf. The winner is looking good to host a playoff game. The loser should also make the playoffs without any worries.

In the MAC, the marquee matchup features Fort Recovery hosting Marion Local with both teams heading for the postseason. Other critical games include 4-3 Versailles needing a win at Coldwater to ensure it can make the playoffs and Delphos St. John's traveling to 5-2 St. Henry. The Blue Jays need to either win this game or at Coldwater in Week 10. St. Henry just needs one more win, but faces Marion Local and Fort Recovery the final two weeks.
   The complete computer points for the four regions involving most area teams can be found throughout the season at: http://www.nktelco.net/bdmonnin/football.htm
 
Region 12:
Team (Computer Points)
1. Franklin (19.29)
2. Wapakoneta (14.61)
3. St. Marys (13.66)
4. Trotwood-Madison (13.20)
5. Mount Healthy (12.66)
6. New Richmond (10.98)
7. Norwood (10.89)
8. Tippecanoe (10.84)
9. Wilmington (10.50)
10. Dayton Belmont (9.53)
11. Piqua (9.52)
17. Celina (5.64)
   Wapakoneta remained in second place, gaining a few points with its win over Defiance and some more thanks to Bellefontaine's fourth win of the season. A win this week against Ottawa-Glandorf or next week at St. Marys should earn the Redskins a home playoff game.

St. Marys rose two positions to third place, though this week's matchup at Defiance will not help the Roughriders stay there. Similar to Wapakoneta, in order to host a home playoff game, St. Marys will need a home win against Wapakoneta or Ottawa-Glandorf the final two weeks.

Celina's loss to St. Marys effectively eliminates it from the postseason.
 
Region 20:
1. CHCA (16.14)
2. Coldwater (14.40)
3. Milton-Union (10.83)
4. Carlisle (9.08)
5. Brookville (9.05)
6. Cincinnati Madeira (8.91)
7. Jamestown Greeneview (8.72)
8. Cincinnati Aiken (8.59)
9. Anna (7.94)
10. Versailles (7.75)
10. Richwood North Union (7.75)
12. Bethel-Tate (7.51)

Coldwater's loss to Minster only dropped the Cavaliers one spot in the region and their success the other six games this year has given them a large cushion over third-place Milton-Union. A home playoff game is almost a lock already, and one more win should get Coldwater a second seed (with Cincinnati Aiken an early favorite to be the opponent). All three remaining Cavalier opponents (Versailles, Anna and St. John's) currently have a 4-3 record.

Anna took a four-position drop after its double-overtime loss to St. Henry. The Rockets may need to beat Coldwater in two weeks to get in the postseason. Wins over Parkway this week and Minster in Week 10 may not yield the necessary computer points.

Versailles falls three spots after defeating Parkway. The Tigers need to defeat Coldwater this week to lock down a playoff spot (this is starting to sound familiar), as wins over Minster and New Bremen in the last two games will leave them squarely on the bubble.
 
Region 24:
1. Marion Local (12.75)
2. Delphos Jefferson (9.71)
3. Mechanicsburg (9.36)
4. Spencerville (9.31)
5. St. Henry (7.80)
6. Allen East (7.19)
7. Fayetteville-Perry (7.18)
8. Miami East (6.56)
  9. Williamsburg (5.87)
10. Cincinnati Country Day (5.72)
11. Summit Country Day (5.67)
24. Parkway (1.20)

Marion Local easily holds onto its position as top dog in the region thanks to its win over New Bremen and secondary points from Chaminade-Julienne, McComb and (surprisingly) Minster. The Flyers need just one more win to lock down a home playoff game. With Parkway waiting in Week 10, this result seems certain, even with games against 5-2 opponents (Fort Recovery and St. Henry) the next two weeks.

St. Henry's win over 4-3 Anna propelled the Redskins four places upward to fifth in the rankings. The Redskins face St. John's, Marion Local and Fort Recovery to end the season. St. Henry needs two wins to guarantee a playoff berth, though just one win gives the Redskins a better-than-even chance to sneak in.
 
Region 28:
1. Covington (14.41)
2. Troy Christian (10.36)
3. Fort Recovery (8.57)
4. Sidney Lehman (7.76)
5. Ada (7.74)
6. Minster (7.04)
7. Miami Valley Christian (5.82)
8. Upper Scioto Valley (5.25)
9. DeGraff Riverside (4.97)
10. Cincinnati Hillcrest (4.84)
11. Springfield Catholic (4.71)
12. Gamble Montessori (4.47)
17. New Bremen (1.70)

A win over St. John's moves 5-2 Fort Recovery up two places to third in the region. The Indians have effectively already qualified for the playoffs in one of the weaker regions in the state, but will probably need a victory over Marion Local this week or St. Henry in Week 10 to earn a home playoff game.
   Drew Pasteur's Fantastic 50 website lists Minster's win over Coldwater as the most unlikely upset to have occurred in Ohio this season. The Wildcats' reward was a rise from 11th to sixth in the standings. A win over New Bremen secures a spot in the postseason for Minster. Another win against either Versailles or Anna gives the Wildcats' a chance at a home playoff game, though they would likely need to win both contests.
 
Other Regions of Interest
   Region 10: If Elida can win their final three games against Kenton, Ottawa-Glandorf and Bath, the Bulldogs will likely finish 10th in the region, with a small chance of stealing the final playoff spot in the region.
   Region 14: Ottawa-Glandorf is in fourth place in this top-heavy region and will probably make the playoffs even if it loses the final three games to Wapakoneta, Elida and St. Marys. One win guarantees the playoffs and two wins are likely needed to secure a home playoff game. If Kenton can win its last three against Elida, Bath and Celina, the Wildcats have the slimmest of chances of joining the Titans in the postseason.
   Region 26: Delphos St. John's fell five places to 10th after losing to Fort Recovery. This region is tougher than in recent years, so the Blue Jays need to either defeat St. Henry this week or Coldwater in Week 10.